HELIOGRAPH · Lattice OS

Hazard Report

NOAA AR 13842 · assessed 2024-10-03, pre-onset.
region NOAA 13842 SHARP B_r · 24 h window deterministic · reproducible
SAMPLE — reconstructed from the published preprint (Matos 2026, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20696671), Figure 1 and Table 1, for illustration. Not a live operational feed.
MAJOR-FLARE WARNING
Activation window open. Crossed the activation level ~16.8 h before onset — the earliest lead in the validation set, consistent with the size-scaled-lead law (this was the most strongly loaded region).
Expected magnitude: high — onset overshoot 1.73× the activation level, the largest in the held-out set.

The loading curve

HELIOGRAPH loading curve — NOAA AR 13842 (2024-10-03 X9.0) 0 2 4 6 8 parasitic energy E (10⁴ units) −36 −24 −12 0 hours before onset loading level E_load ≈ 3.25×10⁴ activation level E_act ≈ 4.15×10⁴ X9.0 onset loading watch −24 h window opens (−16.8 h) field critical — holds
The parasitic energy E(t) — amplitude of the dominant evolving mode of the photospheric field change — loads, crosses the loading then the activation level, and saturates as the region becomes critical and holds. The activation crossing opens the major-flare window ~16.8 h before onset; the firing minute inside the open window is stochastic and is not forecast.

The numbers

QuantityValue
Onset parasitic energy E7.18 × 10⁴
Activation level E_act~4.15 × 10⁴
Overshoot E / E_act1.73
Activation-crossing lead16.8 h
GOES classX9.0

determinism: the same (region, assessment-time) input reproduces this report byte-for-byte. Largest flare of solar cycle 25 to date; highest overshoot in the validation set, and — by the size-scaled-lead law (r = +0.96) — seen the earliest.